Why Is the U.S. Rushing to Finalize a Tariff Agreement with South Korea Now?

Reading the News: The U.S. Is in a Hurry — or Rather, It Was Desperate

You can sense just how urgent Trump feels. Why was he so eager to push tariffs so aggressively, even prematurely? This might be speculative, but it seems Trump felt enormous pressure to deliver tangible achievements in the early phase of his second term. Why?

Because he knows better than anyone that a president’s power fades over time, and his controversial policies would be difficult to sustain without overwhelming political support. To ensure this support, he must win the midterm elections in November next year. So let’s break it down.

🇺🇸 The Midterm Clock Is Ticking

To carry his agenda through to the end of his term—regardless of how divisive or disruptive it may be—Trump must win the midterms. And to win the midterms, he needs to show visible success early.

How?By laying the foundation of his policy vision through bold, even risky, moves early on.

So what exactly is Trump trying to do?

He wants to preserve American global dominance, even as the U.S. is burdened with debt, losing its industrial edge, and seeing its real economy wither while finance takes the lead.

At the center of this mission is one core instrument: Tariffs.

🏛 The Logic of Hegemony: Remove the Rival

The easiest way to maintain hegemony is to remove your competitors—either by crippling existing ones or suppressing rising ones before they gain traction.

Today, the most obvious rival to the U.S. is China. But a weakened America can’t easily defeat China through "fair competition." So instead, the U.S. imposes tariffs—both to reduce its own debt and to deepen China’s isolation through economic pressure and forced alignment from its allies.

🛒 America’s Power: The World’s Largest Consumer Market

The U.S. is the world’s biggest consumer economy. When it imposes tariffs, every exporting nation feels the pain. To avoid that pain, foreign companies are forced to choose:

• Reshore production to the U.S.

• Relocate to countries with better U.S. relations

However, global supply chains aren’t simple. Reshoring requires complex restructuring, long-term investment, and painful decisions. It’s not something countries or corporations will do just because the U.S. “asks nicely.”

And that’s the core dilemma the U.S. faces.

⚖️ The Tariff Dilemma

Yes, tariffs may help reduce debt and protect industries. But they come with serious risks:

• They damage relationships with partner nations.

• They invite retaliatory tariffs.

• Over time, they erode mutual trust, possibly collapsing the U.S.-led economic alliance.

In the worst-case scenario, they could drive countries into a China-centered, anti-U.S. bloc.

And China has already sensed this opportunity. It’s actively visiting countries like Vietnam and Malaysia to consolidate new partnerships, building a unified front against American pressure.

🎯 The Role of Differentiated Tariffs

This is why the U.S. has chosen differentiated tariff rates:

• Vietnam: 46%

• South Korea: 25%

• Japan: 24%

• China: 145%

If negotiations lower these numbers—for example, Vietnam 20%, Korea 10%, Japan 10%—each country’s economic interest shifts.

Some countries, especially those competing with China, might benefit from U.S. protectionism. With China pushed out, these nations could gain greater access to the American market.

While they may publicly complain, they could privately align with the U.S., accepting lower tariffs in exchange for partnership. A new strategic economic bloc would form—one centered on the U.S. and excluding China.

🧮 A Win-Win Framework for the U.S. and Allies

In this model:

• The U.S. still earns some tariff revenue.

• Partner nations benefit from lower tariffs and market access.

• And most of these gains are redirected from China, who loses share in the U.S. market.

In short, these countries gain more from replacing China than they lose from tariffs.And this dynamic incentivizes alliance-building through tariffs.

💣 Dispersing China’s Retaliation

With a solid coalition:

• China’s retaliation becomes dispersed.

• Instead of focusing on the U.S. alone, China now faces resistance from multiple nations.

• This reduces the pain felt by each ally (1/n impact).

• But for China, the combined pressure is now multiplied.

Thus, the U.S. alliance becomes both a shock absorber and an economic shield, while simultaneously acting as a strategic weapon against China.

🧱 Even China's Workarounds Collapse

In recent years, Vietnam, Mexico, and Canada have served as export gateways for Chinese firms trying to bypass U.S. tariffs.

But if these countries ally with the U.S., China loses those workarounds.

Not only will it lose access to the U.S. market, but it could also see its market share shrink in allied countries.Chinese firms might even begin relocating operations to participate in this new U.S.-centered supply chain.

That would accelerate American reshoring and global supply chain realignment, deepening China’s isolation—and weakening its challenge to U.S. dominance.

🧭 The Next Phase: Building a Tariff Alliance

The next stage in this hegemony war is all about forging alliances.

For the U.S. to exert long-term pressure on China, it needs:

• Supply chain reconfiguration

• Legitimacy in the international order

• Dispersed retaliation risks

That’s why differentiated tariffs are critical.

Meanwhile, China is likely to:

• Fuel anti-American sentiment in partner nations

• Offer alternative supply chain visions as a counterweight

If the U.S. fails to form this coalition and China succeeds, America could face a serious strategic crisis.

That’s why the U.S. feels so urgent right now.It must finalize these moves before the midterm elections, before the real showdown with China begins.

And because China understands this, its next moves will be just as calculated.

The future remains open—but the pieces are moving quickly.