Bitcoin and Ethereum Rally? Right Now, It’s All About the Moves Between the U.S. and India.

Right now, the market is drifting at a critical turning point. The Nasdaq is hovering just below its all-time high, without the strength to break out or the fear to break down. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets are showing similar hesitation. On the surface, it seems like macro noise is the cause—tariff deadlines approaching, oil prices rising due to the Israel–Iran conflict, inflation remaining sticky, and labor data looking shaky. But the real reason runs deeper. This market isn’t lacking momentum—it’s lacking conviction. After the April rally, the driving force behind the uptrend has faded, and now, as we approach the highs, the market is asking a simple question:

Why should we go higher from here?

In the absence of a clear answer, we drift sideways. No narrative, no breakout. And when markets lose the story, they stop moving. So the key question now is simple: what kind of catalyst could change that?

Let’s consider the possibilities. There are really only a few events that could serve as legitimate triggers—first, a surprise diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East; second, decisive U.S. action on tariffs; and third, a macro data pivot showing inflation easing while growth holds steady. But the Middle East scenario has already been pushed out. Trump initially mentioned resolution this week—now he’s talking about early July. That pushes any meaningful impact beyond the immediate trading horizon. The macro data scenario is too vague to bet on, at least in the short term.

Which brings us to the most realistic trigger in play right now: trade. Specifically, tariff negotiations. The current suspension for non-China countries ends on July 9. That leaves two to three weeks for countries to finalize deals—or face uncertainty. But not everyone is ready. Japan, often seen as the U.S.’s most aligned partner, is reportedly stuck. With its upper house elections scheduled for July 20, it’s politically difficult to commit to anything big beforehand. Europe is even further behind, lacking a unified voice or clear negotiating position.

So if we’re looking for movement, we should be watching India.

Right now, India is the closest to an actual agreement with the U.S. According to the Economic Times, the negotiations are in their final stages, and both sides want a swift resolution. The only hurdle that remains is India’s demand for a guarantee: that no new tariffs will be imposed after this deal is done. Once that’s resolved, the agreement can move forward—and when it does, it could become the narrative the market’s been waiting for.

That’s because an India deal doesn’t just stand alone. It sets a precedent. If India crosses the line first, it gives other manufacturing-heavy countries—South Korea, Japan—a reason to follow. It gives the U.S. a win. And it gives markets a sense that geopolitical risk is finally starting to unwind.

Meanwhile, price action reflects this hesitation. Bitcoin has been stuck for over four weeks. Ethereum for six. The Nasdaq for two. All are telling the same story: waiting. At the same time, South Korea’s stock market is rising fast. Capital is clearly moving toward where policy expectations and momentum align. That’s the signal. Liquidity is still out there—it just needs a reason to rotate. And if that reason appears, the move could happen quickly.

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At the end of that rotation lies crypto. If a trade breakthrough lines up with stablecoin momentum and macro relief, assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could become the primary beneficiaries. But investors have to be just as aware of the other scenario—because if no catalyst shows up, the fatigue we’re seeing now could turn into something more serious.

July won’t be an easy month. Tariff grace periods end. Middle East risk continues to simmer. Inflation data could surprise in the wrong direction. And in a tired, indecisive market, bad news hits harder than usual.

That’s why this moment matters. This isn’t just about price levels—it’s a psychological turning point. And that’s why we’re watching India so closely. A small political breakthrough could become the spark that lights the next wave.

Sometimes, that’s all it takes.