The Israel-Iran war should be viewed as a positive signal for investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The military conflict risk between Israel and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets. Bitcoin and other digital assets have plummeted, and stock markets have faced short-term corrections. However, interpreting this war merely as a “risk event” is superficial. In reality, this conflict may well be an intentional and orchestrated part of a broader effort to reshape global order. This becomes clearer when we examine the structural economic changes and liquidity flows triggered by the war.

Wars require massive capital—on an unimaginable scale. And once a war begins, liquidity inevitably flows into all related industries and regions. The Middle East has now entered a full-scale state of tension. Not only Iran and Israel, but surrounding nations are expanding military budgets and increasing domestic liquidity in response. But the story doesn’t end there. Europe, already financially exhausted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, now faces a renewed stress test from this Middle Eastern instability. Europe is being pressured to participate in the conflict both in terms of security and energy, inevitably resulting in more liquidity injections from Europe as well.

The United States is no exception. The political justification of “supporting Israel” gives Washington the green light to expand fiscal spending. In other words, this Middle East war is a geopolitical event that reignites global liquidity. And this might be exactly the scenario the U.S. desires most.

At the heart of this war lies the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of global oil shipments (around 20 million barrels per day) pass. If Iran attempts to block the strait, the global oil supply will suffer severe disruption, causing oil prices to spike by tens of dollars per barrel. Major importers in Europe and Asia would be forced to seek alternative, stable energy sources. The only viable alternative? The United States—with both military and supply capabilities.

In this scenario, U.S. shale oil and LNG become strategic assets. American energy firms would see both profitability and trade balances rise.

We may witness an abnormal combination: high oil prices, a strong dollar, and expanding liquidity. But for the U.S., this could mean reduced fiscal pressure, more controlled inflation, and asset market stability—essentially achieving three goals at once. The result? A stronger current account surplus, more attractive domestic assets, and increased foreign capital inflows into the U.S.

The defense sector follows the same logic. U.S. weapon systems are now in high demand globally. From Eastern Europe to the Middle East and Southeast Asia, nations are lining up to sign defense contracts—leading not only to increased profits but also to stronger U.S. leverage in trade negotiations and diplomatic influence. Through war, the U.S. monetizes energy, expands its power via arms sales, and politically packages all of this as justified intervention. The budget approvals for Israel support serve as a legitimate channel for injecting liquidity into equity markets.

Ultimately, this scenario leads to a global capital rebalancing. Capital traditionally flees from crises—but in this case, the crisis itself is becoming a magnet for capital. At the center of this gravitational pull is the United States. As a result, the dollar strengthens, U.S. Treasury yields come under downward pressure, and the triple combo of strong dollar, stable rates, and expanding liquidity creates the textbook environment for asset price appreciation. This is what could be called an “American-style anomalous Goldilocks moment.”

Within this phase, sector-specific rebounds will likely diverge. AI is now the sole narrative justifying U.S. growth. Defense stocks enjoy both liquidity support and war-driven demand. Energy is a no-brainer—U.S. shale and LNG are now geopolitical safe havens, and margins for U.S. energy firms are at historical highs. Robotics and automation will also rise, driven by labor shortages and productivity needs in wartime conditions. Finally, Bitcoin and Ethereum must be watched closely. War creates capital flight. Wealthy individuals in unstable regions must move assets, and Bitcoin—as a decentralized, cross-border asset—stands to gain in utility. Add liquidity to that, and Bitcoin could be re-recognized as a new wartime safe haven.

Ethereum is also significant—not just because of ETF approval speculation, but because it serves as core infrastructure for DeFi and stablecoins. This aligns with capital inflows from the Middle East and emerging Asian economies. The capital moving into Ethereum now may not just be a tech bet—it may reflect capital seeking security “outside the traditional financial system.”

Of course, this structure is not permanent. The U.S. fiscal risk remains unresolved. Tax cuts and ballooning debt could collide, especially around next year’s election, potentially shaking the markets again. If full-scale confrontation with China unfolds, asset markets will likely face another round of adjustment. Therefore, after a potential rebound through July, investors should consider increasing cash allocations again in Q4.

But not yet. For now, this remains a continuation of the current bullish momentum. This war has shaken the world, but simultaneously provides the perfect rationale for U.S.-led global reordering and liquidity expansion. And under this scenario, both equity and crypto markets could regain favor. With this anomalous Goldilocks phase underway, asset markets could continue their upward trajectory.